Ready For Regression

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Baseball is often a game of numbers, but sometimes they lie. The season is only a month old, which leads to some crazy digits. The sample sizes are small , some on the statistics are huge. The average team has played just 12.3% with the schedule, which would be the equivalent of a lot less than two full NFL games and simply 10 on the 82 MLB The Show 18 Stubs contests for the NBA docket.

In short, things will alter and players will revert on the mean. In some cases, this means they will rebound coming from a slow start, but also in this piece we are going to focus on players which will undoubtedly regress because the season matures.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Braves

Filling the void that is left behind by Atlanta legend Chipper Jones, Johnson did nothing but rake this holiday season. He is hitting .397/.424/.556 through 17 games (63 at-bats), a batting average over 100 points above his career mark (.282). He's killing waist-level pitches and carries a .460 batting average on balls in play.

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles

The 27-year-old has slowed from his early great hit pace, six in the first nine games and one since, but it is his average and plate discipline that figure to decline probably the most. The slugger is hitting .382/.463/.794, significantly much better than anything he's ever posted over the full season. He is averaging 0.59 walks per strikeout through 20 games, a rate nearly 3 times as high when he posted last season. Davis is seeing just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance, the smallest of his career. His strikeouts will quickly loom over his walks.

Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets

His .357 average isn't a complete aberration -- he hit .320 over 109 games next year -- but significant regression is about the horizon. Like Johnson, when he puts balls in play they've already found holes. He carries a .377 BAbip, in excess of 50 points greater than his career mark of .325. His .571 slugging percentage can even drop. Murphy contains the highest homer rate of his career and the man's on pace hitting 63 doubles. Singles less complicated more likely.

Mark Ellis, 2B, Dodgers

It wasn't my intent, but I seem picking on infielders. The 35-year-old Ellis is hitting .348/.370/.470 for that Dodgers in 66 at-bats. Over 10 full seasons, Ellis has hit greater than .300 only once (.316 in 2005) as well as his Cheap MLB 18 Stubs career the next baseman is usually a .266/.331/.395 hitter. I'll depend on BAbip yet again, a fantastic indicator of hitting luck, as Ellis carries a .396 mark. That number is just 100 points above it was last season with Colorado.

Justin Upton, LF, Braves

His batting average and on-base percentages aren't everything alarming in comparison to his career numbers, but Upton's power is amazing. He leads most of baseball with 11 home runs (a historic figure through 20 games) with the exceptional slugging percentage (.813) is actually double just what it was within his final season with all the Diamondbacks. He is averaging just 6.8 at-bats per great hit, a great rate. He has averaged 23 at-bats per homer as part of his 751 Major League games. At his current pace, Upton would hit near 90 home runs. I think the Braves can be thrilled with 35 dingers.

John Buck, C, Mets

He has now started to quiet down, but Buck am hot over New York's first 10 games that his numbers still jump off of the screen. The 32-year-old is hitting .277/.300/.631 with seven home runs and a couple RBI. He leads the National League in RBI and sits behind only Mike Napoli (25) for your overall lead. In his best Major League season, he hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 home runs and 66 RBI over 118 games with Toronto (2010). Buck isn't a bad hitter, but as they has shown during the last seven days (three hits in 19 at-bats), hot start just couldn't last.

Shin-Soo Choo, CF, Reds

Choo has hit the floor running using the Reds, hitting .387/.535/.613 for his new club through 75 at-bats. The outfielder hasn't ever hit over .309 during the period of a full season with the exceptional walk-to-strikeout rate (0.82) is well a career-high. He does possess a history of good OBP numbers, and not a 53.5% rate. At this point within the season, almost half from the balls that can off his bat have discovered space within the defense. He was obviously a good addition to Cincinnati and the man'll perform with an All-Star level, but his slash lines won't last.

Mike Napoli, 1B, Red Sox

We knew Napoli would hit well at Fenway Park -- he could be hitting .282/.364/.564 at your home and .256/.256/.535 around the road -- however it is his run-producing performance that is exceptional. He leads every one of baseball with 25 RBI inside the heart of Boston's lineup. Napoli is hitting .188 together with the bases empty, but .357 with runners on as well as in scoring position. He will still knock in runs, but this kind of difference between his hitting splits won't last. Over his career, 15% on the runners on base when Napoli comes towards the plate have scored. Through 87 plate appearances this year, 26% of these runners are crossing home plate.
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